중소유통업 도산예측모형에 관한 실증연구

The purpose of this study are to analyse the financial poverties and to develop the failure prediction model for raising the efficiency of the supporting policy from government, focusing on small and midium sized failed firms. The sample is consisted of 50 firms that failed between 2004 through 2006, and 50 non-failed normal firms, which are all certified by Korean credit guarantee organization. This study apply 22 financial indicators while reviewing the previous empirical studies on bankruptcy and failed firms. Then, the study bring 4 determinants which are significant in two-paired t-test into estimating 2 kinds of failure prediction models. One is the annual failure prediction model, the other is the average failure model. The prediction accuracy of the annual model is 80～83%, and that of the average model is 82～84%. Particularly, the rate of I-type error is much lower than the rate of II-type error. Therefore, this study derived the evidential failure prediction model. The accuracy of failed firms using this model for confirmation on the different sample is shown as 78.6% on three years later, 81.4% on two years later, and 87.1% on one year later, and indicates the importance of analyse of financial statement for constructing the early warning system of firm failure. It also shows the symptom and the difference between failure and non-failure firms before they would be failed.