동아시아 금융통합의 가능성 검증

The saving-investment correlation in East Asia is higher than those of the Euro area economies and the I/Y shows large drop compared with the S/Y. It is an obvious clue that Financial integration in East Asia is getting progress very fast on world financial markets. We estimates the degree of consumption risk sharing and analyzes the channels of consumption risk sharing among the East Asian countries using the method suggested by Asdrubali, Pierfederico, Sorensen, and Yosha(1996), Ravallion and Chaudhuri(1997). Estimation results show that the degrees of smoothing of idiosyncratic shock by cross-holding of financial assets are lower than the euro area economies. Capital markets play a minimal role, and credit markets provide a positive but limited role. These result suggest that there is some room for improvement in potential welfare gains in those economies by means of further risk sharing. On the basis of the international risk sharing model, this paper demonstrated that the high international reserve in East Asia was a second best international risk sharing mechanism in recent years, because the model of this paper proved that the international risk sharing mechanism was inherently inconsistent. Present net foreign assets scale in East Asia has exceeded reasonable scale.