노인장기요양보험의 미래수요 예측

Public long term care insurance, which aims to improve social welfare for elderly people, has been managed for about thirty months. Among various problems indicated so far, demands for service turns out be higher than expected. Under-estimation of demands may cause problems on stable management for long term care service. In order to resolve the problem and to develop the insurance service, future costs for long term care service should be estimated by appropriate method. And it is essential to predict future needs for cost projections. This study suggests an actuarial model for the projection of the needs for various levels of long term care service admission based on empirical data and multi-state Markov model.