글로벌 금융위기전후 미국달러선물시장의 현물시장에 대한 헤지성과 및 거래량정보의 유용성에 관한 실증적 연구

This article examines the lead-lag relation between Won/dollar spot and futures, the effectiveness of trading volume as well as the hedge performance of Won/dollar futures against down side risk of Won/dollar spot market. The major empirical results are as follows; First, according to the lead-lag results, we find that there is a feed relations between Won/dollar spot and futures returns with a statistically significant level but the impact of Won/dollar futures on spot market is dominant. After the global financial crisis, this impact is more strong than before financial crisis. Second, we also find that the changes of trading volume of Won/dollar futures has an impact on the returns of Won/dollar spot and futures but not vice versa. Third, there is no significant difference in the hedge performance among the minimum variance hedge model, VECM(10) and GARCH(1,1) models during the within sample period and out-of sample period From these empirical results we may infer that the hedge performance and price discovery function of Won/dollar futures are well operated. We also think these kinds of results would be a little bit helpful for a hedger to set up investment and hedge strategies in Won/dollar spot and futures markets.