탈냉전 이후 한미동맹의 쇠퇴요인에 관한 연구 : Stephen M.Walt 동맹이론의 비판적 고찰

This study aims to make a suggestion on the direction of the alliance between Korea and the United States in the future and provide useful guidance on the situation in Korean Peninsula by examining factors that have made the alliance decline based on the theory of alliance by Stephen M. Walk and drawing results. For factors that make alliance decline, Walt suggested the following causes: changes in risk awareness, decreased reliability, and changes in domestic politics in his theory of alliance. However, as his theory alone cannot explain the unique situation of the Korean peninsula, the author expanded these factors, reflecting special causes and categorized these causes into internal factors and external factors. In terms of internal factors, changes in risk awareness, decreased reliability, changes in domestic politics, weakening of shared identity, and weakening of the level of security awareness are systemized to analyze while for the external factors, unilateral strengthening of the U.S.-Japan alliance and the advent of countries that could substitute new alliances. To examine the effectiveness of declining factors, the author applied an evaluation index to estimate the main declining factors. The results of estimating the main declining factors in the alliance between Korea and the United States are, first of all, that the changes in risk awareness, second, changes in domestic politics, third, level of security awareness, and fourth, the advent of countries that can substitute new alliances. If we switch the declining factors into continued factors, the alliance between Korea and the United States can last. In other words, if we cannot control and minimize declining factors, and conflicts deepen, the alliance may go down the irreparable declining road.