재무분석가의 경영자 예측공시 분석 경험이 재무분석가 및 경영자의 이익예측공시 정확성에 미치는 영향

This paper investigates whether the analysts’ MF-experience affects analysts and management earnings forecasts. MF-experience is defined as the analysts’ experience of analyzing management forecasts of a specific firm that he/she has followed (Hilary & Shen 2013). The voluntary disclosed information available to investors outside the firm as useful predictive information about the performance of the firm before the earnings announcement is disclosed either by a manager or a financial analyst. Most prior studies show that analysts' earnings forecasts disclosure is affected by managerial forecasts disclosure because managers in firms have more superior private information than analysts. This is in line with the fact that most analysts' earnings forecasts are released after the disclosure of managerial earnings forecasts. This one-sided information flow is suggested by the majority of prior research. However, managers can also modify forecasts through market’s feedback (Dye & Sridhar 2002). In particular, managers are more likely to reflect information provided by the financial analysts as they have information superiority than general investors (Brown et al. 1987). For instance, theory suggested by Dye and Sridhar (2002) and Langberg and Sivaramakrishnan (2010) supports this notion. In addition, recent studies have continued to investigate the likelihood that financial analysts will make more accurate predictions than managers (Clement et al. 2007; Hilary & Shen 2013). For instance, Hilary and Shen (2013) find that after the release of a management forecast, the improvement in accuracy of earnings forecasts made by analysts for non-issuing firms in the same industry is an increasing function depend of the seriousness of MF-Experience. In this paper, by following and modifying Hilary and Shen (2013), I argue that not every financial analysts have information superiority than general market participants, but only who have experience of following firms that reported management earnings forecasts are superior to ordinary investors and normal analysts. As mentioned above, these analysts have MF-experience, and I expect that they disclose more accurate earnings forecasts for that firm than other analysts. Futhermore, I examine whether managers consider the forecasts of these analysts in disclosing their own earnings forecasts by testing the association between MF-experience financial analysts and management forecasts accuracy. The empirical results of this study are as follows. As a result of analyzing whether financial analysts disclose more precise earnings forecasts based on their experience following firms that provided past earnings forecast disclosures, the results show that the accuracy of earnings forecasts of MF-experienced financial analysts is higher than that of financial analysts who do not. Also, managers more rely on the experience of these financial analysts. Specifically, as the number of reports of analysts who have followed the disclosure of managerial earnings forecasts in the past increased, the accuracy of managerial earnings forecasts improved. Lastly, the experience of these financial analysts reduces the difference between managerial-analyst earnings estimates bias. Overall, the results of this paper document that both of the analysts and managers consider and reflect forecasts of MF-experienced financial analysts on their own earnings forecasts. The contribution of this study is as follows. First, I find that the analysts' experience of analyzing past earnings forecasts is one of the most important personal characteristics. In other words, the analysts' analysis of managerial earnings forecast disclosures enhances their future forecasting activities. Second, the results show that the earnings forecasts of financial analysts are reflected in managers earnings forecasting activities. As expected from the theoretical studies by Dye and Sridhar (2002) and Langberg and Sivaramakrishnan (2010), I empirically document their theoretical predictions. Overall, these results confirm the information usefulness of financial analyst predictions that not only market participants but also managers use financial analyst earnings forecasts.