The End of Coal in the United States?

Since the establishment of the U.S. electricity system in the late 1800s through the first half of the 20th century, coal supplied a substantial amount of U.S. energy. Congress had passed the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in 1969, which subjected many new energy projects to environmental review. The passage of the Clean Air Act in 1970 and the Clean Water Act in 1972 seemed destined to restrict pollution from many of the country’s dirty coal-and oil-fired power plants. Nuclear power, and to a much lesser extent, renewable energy, were waiting in the wings, ready to displace fossil fuels. In theory, the development of U.S. environmental laws should have limited the expansion of coal mining and use, particularly as scientists and regulatory agencies began to develop a clearer understanding of the harmful effects of coal pollution on human health and the environment. Environmental regulations, however, were generally too weak to affect the energy mix of the United States. By the late-1990s, despite nearly 30 years of Clean Air Act regulation, coal plants had not become substantially cleaner or more efficient. The U.S. coal rush appears to have gotten its start in 2001, when energy companies and electric utilities initiated efforts to build dozens, and then more than 200, new coal-fired power plants. Some of the factors in this situation were that energy consumption forecasts would significantly increase electricity consumption and the Bush administration's decision to minimize environmental regulations for coal-fired power plants. However, opposition movements by environmental groups(Sierra Club) to coal-fired power plants have led to the Obama administration adopting rules aimed at regulating pollutant emissions to coal-fired power plants. The energy market also showed a less favorable situation for coal due to dropping prices of natural gas and renewable energy. And also, state regulators began to recognize the risks to ratepayers of allowing utilities to invest in new coal-fired power plants. Since taking office, the Trump Administration has tried to revive the coal industry, through regulatory rollbacks, new orders that promote coal exploration on federal lands and coal exports to foreign countries, and through two assaults on competitive wholesale energy markets in which coal and nuclear power plants are no longer competitive. Nevertheless, the percentage of electricity supplied by renewable resources continued to climb during the first year of the Trump Administration, and short-term energy forecasts suggested that renewables would continue to grow. While it appears that the end of coal is finally coming, and while we should look at coal’s end as a positive development, the U.S. transition away from coal should serve as a cautionary tale in many ways. First, the decades of inadequate regulation have had devastating impacts on the climate, the environment, and human health. Second, although renewable energy has finally become cost-competitive with coal and natural gas, it is likely this would have happened much earlier, if not for the intervention of the government. Third, renewable and storage technologies have advanced enough to be reliable, and climate change has advanced enough to make any new investments in fossil fuels risky. Governments should therefore develop energy plans that will leapfrog over coal to zero-carbon sources.