금융시장지수의 한국주택시장 적용성에 관한 연구

The 2007 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis shows the housing market crisis could expand into the financial market. Thus, if there is an early indicator of the housing market crisis, the financial crisis can be predicted in advance. This study calculates a volatility index for housing prices and examines whether the volatility index can account for information in the housing market, such as housing prices and the rate of change. The calculated volatility index confirmed that an increase over a fall in domestic housing prices was the predominant factor, especially the continued upward pressure on housing prices since 2016. On the other hand, the housing market has shifted from an upward trend to a downward trend since the second half of 2018 with each volatile index rising. As such, the ability to explain the housing price volatility indicators calculated for changes in the housing market was identified and the volatility indicators produced by them could be used as evidence to predict the housing market.