공간전염모형과 수출기반 불변시장점유율모형의 결합을 통한 우리나라 수출변동의 요인별 분해

This paper utilizes constant market share analysis and the standard shift-share analysis with a spatial component added in order to consider the regional dependencies. According to the constant market share analysis, HS 85 exports to China and Vietnam are more affected by fluctuations in the Chinese and Vietnamese markets, while Korea's competitiveness has a greater impact on exports to Hong Kong rather than changes in the Hong Kong market. The constant market share analysis also shows that for HS 84 exports the world growth effect and the competitive effect contribute to the increase in exports to China, but the competitiveness effect is a principal factor in the export fluctuations compared to the import market. On the other hand, it reveals that for HS 84 exports to the U.S., the world growth effect is the principal component. The shift-share analysis shows that the increase in Gwangju's HS85 exports to China is due to the national growth effect, industrial mixed effect, and competitiveness effect. HS85 exports to Hong Kong and Vietnam increase due to national growth effect and industrial mixed effect, but decrease due to competitiveness effect, which is the strongest among the three effects. The shift-share analysis reveals that HS84 exports to China and to the United States decline, the national effect and industrial mixed effect increase, but the competitiveness effect, the biggest one in export fluctuations, is the declining factor. In the spatial shift-share analysis, it is also shown that Gwangju's HS85 exports have weakened its competitive advantage over other regions as time passes.