응급환자 추이예측 분석 : AMI, Stroke, ICISS 기반 중증질환자

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify the trends and seasonality of the three major emergency diseases(Acute myocardiac infarction, Stroke, Severe trauma) and to use them to establish efficient resources and evidence-based physicians to predict the number of patients. Methodology: From 2014 to 2018, the number of patients who received emergency medical care for acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and severe trauma (based on ICISS 2008) was predicted using Emergency Medical Status Statistics provided by the National Medical Center. Based on the Autoregressive integrated moving average model, the increasing trend and seasonality of patients by disease were confirmed and the number of patients was predicted. Findings: Since 2014, the number of patients with emergency diseases has steadily increased, with the highest number of patients in the order of Severe trauma (based on ICISS 2008), Stroke, and Acute myocardiac infarction. Patients with cerebrovascular disease, such as Acute myocardiac infarction and stroke, increased rapidly in winter(Oct-Jan), and patients with severe trauma increased mainly in summer or autumn(May-Oct) and number of patients will increase with seasonality. Practical Implications: The number of major emergency patients is expected to increase steadily over time, so it is important to be prepared for this. Therefore, providing emergency care with limited resources is a very important issue, and in order to prepare for the growing elderly population, emergency medical patients, and unpredictable infectious diseases, it is necessary to keep track of the number of patients for each emergency disease.