대규모 장기 다단계 에너지 사업의 실물옵션 기반 투자가치 평가기법

This study proposes an investment valuation method based on compound real options suitable for large-scale long-term multi-stage energy projects. The uncertainty of large-scale energy projects such as nuclear power is concentrated in the pre-operation stages, including construction. However, the existing studies focus on the uncertainty in the operation stage, so they cannot consider the uncertainty that changes in stages, and it is difficult to use in the early stage. The method of this study overcomes the above limitations through a combination of a binomial lattice for modeling uncertainty changing step-by-step, a compound real option for sequential decisions, and a Monte Carlo simulation for quantifying uncertainty. The method was applied from the perspective of Korean nuclear power operator entering the UK power market. In a practical view, this study has contributed to more accurately evaluating the investment value and effectively managing risk. In an academic perspective, a customized valuation method using real options for large-scale long-term multi-stage energy projects that consider staged volatility through a combination of multiple methodologies was proposed.