연구자 주도 기초연구 투자의 시차효과 분석: 성과의 양적, 질적 수준을 중심으로

In the context of national initiative, investment in researcher-led basic research has recently seen a significant increase. Discussions regarding the appropriate scale of investment are lacking, leading to a continuous demand for discussions on the efficiency of current investments. R&D investments involve a time lag, making it essential to incorporate the time lag structure in the analysis of investment efficiency. In order to derive implications for improving investment efficiency, this study estimated the time lag effect of researcher-led basic research from a qualitative level perspective. Almon's polynomial distributed lag model was utilized with R&D expenses set as the independent variable and articles as the dependent variable. To estimate the time lag from a qualitative level perspective, groups were divided based on the modified rank normalized impact factor (mrnIF). Our results showed that time lag effect of researcher-led basic research peaked in the second year of R&D investment. Furthermore, the analysis showed that with low qualitative levels, the time lag effect was further delayed. With high qualitative levels, the time lag effect peaked in the second year and lasted until the third year. However, with low qualitative levels, the peak occurred in the third year and lasted until the fifth year.