불황기에 경영자의 자기과신 성향이 경영성과에 미치는 영향

[Purpose] It is generally reported that there is a negative relationship between managers’ overconfidence tendencies and firm performance, but this relationship may appear differently depending on the economic cycle. Companies reduce investment during a recession, but overconfident managers who invest aggressively during a recession may actually improve future firm performance. This study examines the impact of managers’ overconfidence on firm performance during a recession. [Methodology] This study samples 22,064 company－years of non－financial listed companies from 2003 to 2019, and uses the average return on assets (ROA) as the dependent variable. To classify the recession period, the ‘Comprehensive Economic Index and Base Cycle Date’ data published by the National Statistical Office was used, and regression analysis was performed using the proxy for self－confidence used in previous studies as an explanatory variable. [Findings] The results of this study are as follows. First, during the recession, managers’ overconfident tendency did not show a significant relationship with firm performance. Accordingly, as a result of analyzing only the manufacturing industry for which industry－specific business cycle data is available, it was found that managers’ overconfidence tendency during a recession has a positive effect on future firm performance. In other words, in the case of the manufacturing industry, aggressive investment due to managers’ overconfidence during a recession has a positive effect on future firm performance. [Implications] There is a difference compared to previous studies in that the study showed that managers’ overconfidence tendency can have a positive effect on firm performance in a recession. In addition, there is a contribution point in that it has been demonstrated that a manager’s tendency to be overconfident can have a positive effect on firm performance in some cases and is not necessarily negative on firm performance.