기업의 전략적 일탈과 신용부도스왑 스프레드

Strategic decision-making plays a critical role in a firm's long-term growth and survival, and serves as an important factor in external investors' evaluations. While firms may adopt strategies similar to their industry peers for the sake of stability, they may also deviate from common industry patterns and engage in strategic deviance. Building on the growing body of research on strategic deviance, this study empirically examines the effect of strategic deviance on firms' credit risk. Using credit default swap (CDS) data, we investigate the relationship between the level of strategic deviance and CDS spreads, and additionally analyze the moderating effects of financial constraints and corporate governance. The empirical results show that a higher level of strategic deviance significantly increases CDS spreads. This suggests that strategic deviance can heighten uncertainty regarding future performance and exacerbate information asymmetry, thereby increasing firms' credit risk. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced among firms facing severe financial constraints and those characterized by weak corporate governance. The main findings remain robust when separating the sample into the Global Financial Crisis period and normal periods and when applying propensity score matching (PSM) to address potential endogeneity concerns. By clearly demonstrating the impact of strategic deviance on CDS spreads, this study highlights the importance of strategic decision-making and offers new insights into the determinants of credit risk assessment. The findings are expected to stimulate further research integrating the fields of strategic management and finance.