ARDL-ECM 모형을 활용한 서민금융 정책대출 상품시장의 비금융 서비스 효과 분석

This study examines the macro-level effects of financial education, consulting services, and a digital service platform introduced by the Korea Inclusive Finance Agency (KINFA) on the equilibrium of the inclusive finance market. Using monthly data for two representative microcredit products—Miso Finance for the self-employed and the Sunshine Loan for workers—from 2013 to 2025, this study applies an ARDL–ECM model combined with a dynamic event-study approach to capture both short- and long-term policy effects. The results reveal that financial education and consulting significantly reduce the number of loans issued in both programs, whereas loan amounts remain unaffected. These findings imply that financial literacy and consulting serve as a screening mechanism that enhances borrower prudence without contracting total credit supply. Meanwhile, the introduction of the digital platform “Itda” shows no immediate impact on loan volumes or amounts, suggesting a potential need for improvement of its UI and service quality. The study highlights that the effectiveness of non-financial interventions depends on their integration with credit programs and calls for the expansion and digital enhancement of financial education policies to strengthen financial resilience among vulnerable borrowers.