보험업과 경제성장간의 인과관계

The purpose of this study is to measure the insurance industry's economic contribution to the overall economy by analyzing the causality between major economic variables and insurance-related variables. I conducted empirical analyses using Generalized Method of Moments and Panel-VAR Model, with cross-sectional data from 16 advanced countries(with GDP per capita over $20,000) between 1980 and 2004. There are several important findings.First, the Impulse Response Function analysis shows that the development of a country's insurance industry serves to increase economic growth. Second, according to the variance decomposition results, the insurance industry plays an important role in determining major economic variables, such as GDP per capita. Third, economic development promotes the development of the insurance industry. When there is an impulse in the GDP variable, insurance premiums increase tremendously. The rate of increase is especially great in the life insurance sector compared to the non-life insurance sector. Fourth, the insurance industry helps stabilize prices. According to variance decomposition, the effect of insurance premiums on the forecast error variance of inflation is lower than that of savings. Fifth, the effects of real interest rates and inflation are greater in the life insurance sector than in the non-life insurance sector. This is due to the fact that the life insurance sector has longer maturity periods than the non-life insurance sector. The longer maturities naturally render the life insurance sector highly sensitive to interest and inflation rates. As seen in the above research findings, the insurance industry leads to economic growth by helping increase GDP per capita. It is also confirmed that the insurance industry contributes to price stability, which in turn serves to stabilize the overall economy.