목포지역 해조류 수출의 추정과 예측

The purpose of this study is to develop, estimate and forecast the seaweeds export of Mokpo region based on the econometric model. A major feature of export structure is its high degree of dependence with Japan. This dependence has increased dramatically with the rise in export revenues. Specifically, exports of agricultural products and seaweeds to Japan constitute 99.2% and 91.6% in 2004, respectively. This paper, hence, estimates the income and price elasticities of demand for the exports of Mokpo, modelling export demand as exchange rate and industrial production. The empirical results reveal that the exchange rate performs a key role in the short-run. This paper hitherto applies impulse response functions to the model to get an information regarding the responses of exports to the shocks in the exchange rate and income. Another empirical results reveal that exports respond positively to the shock in the exchange rate and income, but the responses are small and short-lived. Also, two types of quantitative forecasting models used in this paper are time series model and causal econometric model. This study proceeds by comparing the forecasting performances of the structural models with those of the nonstructural model such as Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) model, concluding that the former outperforms the latter. I present the predicted values based on the ARIMA model and structural model, which composes the current model, SIM32 model, SIM30 model, SIM23 model, SIM22 model. The result shows the seaweeds export increase slowly.