신용보증공급이 이자율스프레드와 전산업 산업생산 지수에 미치는 영향분석:VAR모형을 중심으로

This paper analyses the effect of change in credit guarantee supply on the interest spread by using the difference between the bank loan interest rate and 5-year government interest rate for firm’s risk of financing and industrial production index. The method for the analysing these variables is the VAR approaches which draw some economic implications for them. The analytical results show that in the Granger-causality test, a change in the credit guarantee supply does cause to the interest spread, which in turn takes a leading indicator for industrial production index after seven months of lag. In addition, the industrial production index gives a role of leading the credit guarantee supply as a pro-cyclical relationship. And, the credit guarantee supply mostly makes a important role as a leading indicator for the interest spread as well except 2-months lag. Therefore, the implication indicates that when economic shocks occur the credit guarantee supply may take a role of reducing the firm’s loanable fund risk as a built-in stabilizer and gives an economic policy for the economies by deepening the methodologies among the variables by avoiding the uncertain risks that come from the firm’s loan in the future. In addition, it is also possible to make a policy analysis on how to control the level of the credit guarantee supply based on the changing of industrial production index after 7 months of changing the credit guarantee supply. However, it needs to consider more delicate methodologies to see the relationship among these three variables in the next research.