지방세 추계모형 연구: 지수평활법을 중심으로

The purpose of this study is to find a forecasting model of local tax revenues, not only an accurate but practical method, among a number of alternative ones. We apply an exponential smoothing method to forecasting local tax revenues, considering the practical limits revealed in the previous studies. The results of empirical analyses reveal that exponential smoothing method is more accurate than the existing methods used for forecasting local tax revenues both in the share tax system of central government and the budget process of local governments in Korea. According to the study, the method has three advantages as follow: First, the method can make forecasting error smaller. Second, it is a simple and practical method. Third, because it is a scientific method, the forecasting results could be more objective.