중소벤처평가지표와 기업부실 관계에 관한 연구

While previous bankruptcy predicting models verified ex-ante discriminatory power of financial ratio(index), the objective of the study is to verify the discriminatory power of technology, marketability and business indexes in predicting small and medium sized manufacturing firms' failure or bankruptcy risk and the result of the study is expected to be useful in loan evaluation, investment decision, internal management consideration and business improvement. To do this, among small and medium sized manufacturing firms funded in the year between 1999 and 2002, 1,050 normal and 184 bankrupted firms are selected for analysis. The relationship between valuation model index and firm's failure (bankruptcy risk) is carefully studied using binary logistic regression analysis and student's t-test with an aid of SPSS program. The result can be summarized as below. First, valuation model index for small and medium sized manufacturing firms shows as good prediction power as financial ratio prediction model. Second, for small and medium sized manufacturing firms, technology valuation index shows better discriminating power than marketability index or business index. Third, the improvement of valuation model index is required to redefine concepts of technology index, marketability index, and business index and for mutual independency between these indexes.