경기변동와 일자리소멸 : 생산성에 따른 선별을 중심으로

Business Cycle and Job DestructionHye-won KimThis paper begins with an observation that the composition effect in aggregate productivity increase is smaller in recession than in boom. According to the empirical result concerning the effect of productivity in recession on job destruction, we cannot find evidence that the “natural selection” process of market is more intense in recession than in boom.These findings are explained by the idea that in recession it is more difficult for a worker with marginal job skill to get better job due to the reduction of job creation and the decrease in job opportunity than in boom. I propose labor market search model with vintage capital and on-the-job search to formulate this idea and show that the proportion of low-wage jobs increase and that job destruction rates in low-wage firms decrease relatively in recession. In addition, this model can explain why obvious difference of the composition effects in aggregate productivity increase between cyclical phases is not observed empirically.Moreover, we can derive several forecastings about different pattern of labor turnover over busincess cycle from the model. Total labor turnover rate decreases in recession because mobility of high-wage workers diminishes due to the reduction of job creation, although more job destruction in recession makes low-wage workers jobless. An empirical test is needed to examine these hypotheses about labor mobility in further research.