수도권 재건축아파트와 일반아파트 가격간의 인과성 및지역 파급 효과에 대한 실증적 분석- 강남 지역의 가격 이전 효과를 중심으로 -

With the recent increase of housing price, Korean Government has considered the price of condominium projected to rebuild(CPR) the major cause that stimulates the price of other condominiums around the CPR. The Gangnam area, expecially CPR in the area, has been believed the typhonic center of the housing price skyrocketing. The Government has made very strong regulation on the CPR and the condominium in the Gangnam area.This study tries to find out whether the previous studies and practical senses regarding the causality between CPR's prices and others' in Seoul metropolitan area are correct or not, especially focusing on the spill over effect of the housing price of the Gangnam area. By using Granger causality test and cointegration test of time series data from January 2000 to November 2007, this empirical study finds three findings as following. Frist, the price of CPR not always precedes the price of other condominiums. Second, the housing price in the Gangnam area would lead the ones in Seoul metropolitan area, and vice versa. Third, the previous assumption on the information delivery gap between housing markets can not be supported by the empirical result of this study. These findings are the contrary of the common thoughts, Government's assertion and some results of previous studies.