부동산 감정평가에 있어서 위험과 불확실성에 관한 연구

This paper addresses the risk and uncertainty of real estate appraisal, applies Monte Carlo simulation technique with discounted cash flow method to the value of real estate in order to explain the risk and uncertainty of real estate appraisal. The initial value of simulation are extracted from the office market data of Seoul, Korea. It assumes that the rent follows the geometric Brownian process, and base interest rate follows AR(1) process. The risk premium is estimated by real estate risk scoring method, which expresses the risk of real estate investment with risk score. This paper presents the results of simulation with variation in the components of income estimation(simulation #1), or risk factors of discounted rate estimation(simulation #2), and together(simulation #3). The range of present value of simulation #1 is largest, simulation #3 is next, simulation #2 is most narrow. I conclude that risk scoring method is reliable tool to enhance the performances of simulation, and that with simulation technique, the risk and uncertainty of real estate appraisal could be identified, understood, applied to various purposes by various users of the appraisal reports.