부동산가격 변동과 상호저축은행의 수익성

This paper analyzed the effect of changes in real estate prices on the profitability of mutual savings banks by using the data of 199 mutual savings banks from 1999 to 2005. Random-effect models as well as pooled OLS models are used to estimate ROA equations. The estimated results clearly show that changes in real estate prices have had significant influences on the profitability of mutual savings banks during the period in question. Moreover, drops in real estate prices are shown to have had much greater effects than rises in them. This latter result indicates that the profitability of mutual savings banks will deteriorate seriously, if the real estate price decreases further. Several policy implications are drawn from the empirical findings as follows. First, Financial Supervisory Service should take pre-emptive corrective actions towards mutual savings banks more actively, to reduce the possibility of crisis resulting from the collapse in real estate prices. Secondly, the current financial supervision system needs to be revised to induce banks to accumulate more provisions and equity capital during the boom, thereby reducing the increasing procyclicality of loan extension. Thirdly, macro-prudential supervision capacity has to be improved to act effectively against the possibility of crises due to the herding behaviour of financial institutions. Lastly, more cooperation between the monetary authority and the financial supervisory authority is needed to moderate effects of downturn in real estate prices on the financial markets and institutions.