실시간 자료를 이용한 국지적 부동산시장 불안정지역의 동태적 특성 탐색

The main purpose of this research is to propose a objective method to explore local areas of which real estate market is unstable. In terms of volatility of housing price, local areas with unstable real estate market have spatio-temporal hotspot·coldspot patterns. Because the patterns are subject to be of locality and rapid change, however, it would be difficult to diagnose the areas as unstable market until it develops big socio-economic problems. This difficulty makes a gap between current real estate market situation and any policy measures for stabilizing real estate market. Given the awareness of this gap, this research proposes a spatio-temporal hotspot·coldspot chart of housing price volatility with real time data to identify dynamics of spatio-temporal characteristics in unstable market areas and to analyze its responses to each policy measure. Selecting three local areas (Seocho-Gu, Gangnam-Gu, and Songpa-Gu) for a case study, this research comes up with a chart using real time dataset over a period of three years from July 2003 to February 2007. This chart reveals two major spatio-temporal properties of the dynamics in these three areas after the Noh administration's policy measures for stabilizing real estate market. First, even the same policy is applied, three area's real estate market proved to response differently by area. Second, the effectiveness of each policy measure dropped significantly as it followed the previous one.