호텔산업의 합리적 수요예측 방법에 관한 연구: 정성적 방법과 정량적 방법 간 예측치의 정확도 비교

Although quantitative data are available in the hotel industry, traditionally hotel managers tend to predict their room sales based on their simple judgement because of lack of knowledge on quantitative forecasting models. This practice, however, does not guarantee accuracy of their room sales in near future, making hotel yield management difficult. In this respect, this study aims to compare forecasting accuracy between quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques when predicting hotel room sales. To this end, this study employs quantitative forecasting techniques such as Holt, Winters, and Regression models using actual data of hotel room sales. Then, these forecasts are compared with traditional qualitative forecasts by hotel managers in terms of accuracy. The results of this study indicate that forecasts by quantitative approach were more accurate than traditional qualitative forecasts by hotel managers in terms of hotel room sales. In other words, forecasts by hotel managers were found significantly different from actual room sales. The findings suggest that hotel management should utilize more accurate quantitative forecasting approach than traditional qualitative method when predicting room sales. Furthermore, the Winters Exponential Smoothing model was found to be the most appropriate forecasting method in terms of simplicity and accuracy. Thus, this study also suggest that hotel managers should utilize relatively simple forecasting method of the Winters model in particular when data of room sales depict seasonality.