정치적 민주주의와 사형의 효과: 억제 Vs. 야수화*

Deterrence researches have been one of most controversial areas of various criminological fields. Of them, the effect of capital punishment has been more controversial area than any other fields, because of its various issues, such as moral, religious and methodological issues. These many disputations can be also an evidence that the effect of death penalty is effected by any other various factors. This study focuses on one factor of political democracy, that can distort on deterrence effect with various ways. On past, in Korea, there are a rapid political progress, specially, before and after 1987. Before the democratization of 1987, there were many executions of political criminals in Korea. But, in recent, all executions have been on street criminals. This study predict both deterrence and brutalization effect; i.e. there will be deterrence effect in democratic society but brutalization effect in non-democratic society. To test these hypotheses, the monthly data(1970-2007) were used in analysis. In crosstabulation comparing 3 month of pre-intervention with 3 month post-intervention, our hypothesis was supported such as prediction. But the result of ARIMA interrupted time-series analysis shows that, of the five executions, only one execution significantly increased murder rate and also its' effect was persisted in long term. And then some its implications will be discussed.