경영자의 기회주의적 재량권이 재무분석가의 이익예측에 미치는 영향

Using firms covered by FN-GUIDE PRO database, this study investigates whether managerial discretion affects analysts‘ forecast of earnings. Specifically, this study examines the effects of opportunistic managerial discretion on analysts' earnings forecast errors. When managers exercise their discretion opportunistically through accruals and their components, external information users such as investors and analysts experience difficulty in understanding implication of accruals and their components for future earnings forecast so that their earnings forecast could be biased. The final sample consists of 1276 firm-years over 2000-2007. To examine the effect of managerial discretion on analysts' earnings forecast, the researchers decomposed accruals into nondiscretionary and discretionary components to measure managerial discretion using cross-sectional modified Jones model. Empirical results supported the hypothesis, i.e., the larger discretionary accruals, the less accurate the analysts' earnings forecast. On the other hand, nondiscretionary components of accruals did not have any significant effect on analyst's forecast errors. The results indicate that even analysts have limited ability to process information in managerial discretion adequately. Therefore, investors should be cautious when using analysts' forecasts in their investment decisions.