전자상거래가 화물통행에 미치는 영향을 고려한 지역간 도로화물 통행배분모형

This study improved Gravity Model, which traditionally has considered only travel distance as a variable in the impedance function, by incorporating an additional variable, EC-scale explaining the effects of EC on freight trips. Previous studies which considered only travel length variables have not yet clearly revealed the effects of EC on freight trips with the characteristics of small size, diverse items and much-often-frequencies. It is found that Gravity Model can be improved by incorporating EC-scale explaining the effects of EC on freight trips into the impedance function. The consideration of EC-scale in the model rendered the estimated errors (MAE%) decrease by 3.5, 3.3, 3.2 and 2.9 times for agricultural, light industry, scrapped materials and leather products, respectively. However, any analytic meanings were not found for the others. Based on these results, it is judged that freight demand analyses should be performed item by item of goods. This study suggested advanced Gravity Models for seven types of goods categorized by chemical and physical characteristics. These seven models are expected to build economy of scale in freight demand analysis for small size, diverse items and much-often-frequencies. There should be further studies on EC-scale and scientific methods appling it to Gravity Model.