부동산 PF(Project Finance)대출의 부실화 요인에 관한 연구

Based on 464 outstanding loans of real estate development project finance(REDPF) from 4 commercial banks in Korea, this study aims at identifying the factors to influence the credit risk of REDPF loans. Dependants are the delinquencies, ratios of bad loan allowance to outstanding loan amount and FLC(Forward-Looking Criteria)s of REDPF loans. Through Model 1 concerning the ex-ante project information before the first drawdown, we find that the market interest rates on the signing dates, the third-party credit reinforcement provided by construction companies and their credit ratings are significantly correlated to the credit risk. In the era of tight money, banks seem to evaluate the project feasibility more conservatively: which in turn contributes to hedging the credit risk in advance. Among several types of credit grants, the payment guarantee by the companies is the most efficient to prevent the loan delinquency, more desirably with higher ratings. Through Model 2 primarily focusing on the ex-post information by maturity, we have the evidence that the delayed project schedule, the rapid and severe credit degrading of construction companies and borrowers' violating the covenants are the main factors to threat the loan safety. Results imply that more conservative loan rating and corporate analysis, stricter management of project schedule and more efficient force measure to let borrowers keep agreements are desirable ways to reduce the credit risk of REDPF loans.