경험적 지식의 정량화를 통한 부동산경기 예측

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to suggest a measurement indicator and a forecasting methodology for real estate business based on experienced and subjective knowledge of expertise. (2) RESEARCH METHOD Development of the appropriate methodology to quantifying subjective knowledge on real estate business forecasting is the main focused area of this study. AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and Fuzzy Set Theory were adopted to quantify and logically arrange the experts' knowledge. The subjective opinions which provided basis for forecasting were obtained by survey on experts in the areas of real estate and construction industry. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS This study tried to resolve the obstacles of previous research efforts which suggested real estate business indicators based on statistical data obtained from various areas, and showed the possibility that subjective knowledge can help estimation of real estate business and decision making logically and quantitatively in this area. 2. RESULTS This study presented the measurement indicator representing the real estate business. In addition, the methodology that quantifies the amount of change in the real estate business, which is estimated qualitatively by industry experts, was provided. The indicator and the forecasting methodology presented in this research are useful for representing subjective knowledge of expertise and flexible for considering new factors and assumptions in the process of forecasting.