종합부동산세 및 대출규제가 아파트가격에 미치는 효과에 대한 분석

In this paper, the effects of comprehensive real estate holding tax(CREHT) and household credit control on apartment price index are empirically analyzed. Using the Chow's breakpoint test, we try to find out whether there exists structural change in the apartment price index before and after the imposition of CREHT. Our findings are as follows. First, after first quarter of 2005 when the CREHT was newly implemented, there was significant change in trend and the relation between apartment price index and rent index. Second, however, if we consider the household credit control data with other price variables such as apartment price and rent index in our Chow's test, the imposition of CREHT has no significant effect on the price index. This means that at least till now, household credit control is more effective on the price variables than CREHT. Moreover, we try to analyze the mutual relationship among these three variables (household credit amount, apartment price index, apartment rent index) using VEC model. With this model, we find that the change in household credit has significant impact on the changes in the apartment price and rent index.