프로스펙트 이론의 손실회피현상이 펀드성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증적 연구
An empirical study between loss aversion of prospect theory and fund performance
조상기
8권 1호, 149~174쪽
초록
본 연구는 효율적 시장가설의 이상현상(Anomalies)중의 하나인 비대칭적 매도성향이 개인 투자자 및 기관투자자들에게 존재한다는 선행 연구를 확대하여, 기관투자자들 중 특히 자산 운용회사가 운용하는 국내 주식형 펀드에도 존재하는지를 분석하였다. 또한 비대칭적 매도성향이 펀드성과에 미치는 영향에 대해 추가로 분석하였다. 분석 자료에는 국내 대형 사무관리회사에서 제공받은 2004년부터 2007년까지의 3년간의 주식형 펀드를 사용하였으며, 분석 모형으로는 Odean(1998)의 비율차이와 3-factor 모델인 Fama and MacBeth(1973)의 선형회귀분석을 이용 하였다. 분석결과 국내 주식형 펀드에도 비대칭적 매도성향이 존재하였으며, 비대칭적 매도성향이 펀드 성과에 미치는 영향은 주식형 전체적으로 비대칭적 매도성향이 1% 증가할 때마다 연 0.093% 정도의 부정적(Negative)인 결과를 보였다. 이와 같은 연구 결과가 투자자들에게는 다양한 펀드 선택의 기준을, 펀드를 운용하는 주체인 자산운용회사에게는 합리적 투자의사결정에 기여할 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
This research investigated institutional investors' investment behavior, focusing on the disposition effect which is based on the prospect theory's asymmetric value function. Empirical studies show most investors have a significant preference for realizing winners than losers, and the preference, disposition effect has been widely studied and documented among the individual investors' group. However, the disposition effect, a form of irrational trading, has been ignored among the institutional group. Perhaps the reason is that institutional investors are viewed as professionals and they are above behavioral bias. This research investigated whether or not such an asymmetric investor behavior also exists in the funds which are managed by asset management companies. By using a unique database from 2004 to 2007 which is obtained by the biggest fund administrator in Korean fund industry, we try to find strong evidence of the disposition and fund performance. This research also investigated the disposition effect bias has impact on investment performance, if the bias exists. Several interesting results are found. First, disposition effect generally existed among most of funds like those from previous studies in a professional group. Second, this research find that there is a negative relationship(-0.093% annually) between disposition effect and investment performance, in regard to the disposition effect to fund performance in the cross section,On top of that, core findings may make a contribution to the literature that tries to examine a new investment technique and those who try to select a variety of stock investment funds. This factor cannot be simply eliminated by devising fund structures or contracting mechanisms. Those who are involved in fund industry need to understand the nature of this behavior factor and realize the potential performance.
- 발행기관:
- 금융지식연구소
- 분류:
- 증권/주식/채권