경매시장의 주택가격지수 추정에 관한 연구 -강남3구의 아파트를 중심으로-

The purpose of this paper is to develop a housing price index in the real estate auction market and to analyse the relationship between auction market and private negotiation market. We use the data on auction for condominium in Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu and Songpa-gu, Seoul from Q1 2001 to Q2 2009. The SPAR(sale price to appraisal ratio) index model is adopted to estimate the index. After estimating the index, it is compared with the Transaction-based Housing Price Index which is made and released by the government to trace housing price change in the private negotiation market. We test null hypothesis for the equality of both indices and check up the cross correlation between two indices. We find that the null hypothesis are not rejected and the auction price index is coincident with the Transaction-base Housing Price Index. Next, we compare the auction price index with the KB Housing Price Index which is one of the appraisal-based index for the private negotiation market. We find that the auction price index is more volatile than the KB Housing Price Index and leads the KB Housing Price Index by 1 quater. The result seems to come from the smoothing of the KB Housing Price Index.