남자 청소년 폭력사범 재범 예측 요인 : 남자 폭력소년 보호관찰대상자 재범위험성 평가도구(MVJP-RRAR) 개발 연구

The purpose of the present study is to analyze factors predicting recidivism of male violent juvenile probationers for the duration of probation term, and to develop a actuarial assessment tool designed to be employed in the practice of probation. The subjects consisted of 288 violent juvenile probationers who had reoffended during their terms of probation and matched sample of 251non-recidivists. The study found significant deferences between the recidivists group and the non-recidivists group in 14 variables. Among these variables,logistic regression showed that age at the time of commencing probation,experience of school dropout, denying accountability, violent criminal history best predicted the recidivism for the duration of probation. MVJP-RRAR demonstrated that AUC value amounted to .732, which is referred to high predictive accuracy. These results of the study suggest that MVJP-RRAR could be a useful and potential tool in managing juvenile probationers commensurately with their risk,and treating violent juveniles on their need basis. It is expected that the predictive accuracy and the validity would be enhanced by follow-up studies on validation,and subsequent studies considering dynamic factors and protective factors.