재택근무의 교통부문 영향 분석 - 수도권의 총 승용차 통행거리(VKT)에 대한 영향을 중심으로 -

Although many researchers have been revealed relationship between telecommuting(TC) and travel, especially substitution effect, a few studies have been conducted regarding the negative impact of TC. Reduction of commute time and cost due to TC can allow stimulating travel in several ways: 1) generating non-commute work-related and non-work travel of tele-commuters(TCs) and their household members, 2) residential relocation to suburb and its travel generating effects, 3) latent demand, and 4) induced demand. We developed one OLS model and fifteen Tobit regression models to estimate total negative impacts, increase in Vehicle Kilometers Traveled(VKT), using 2006 Household Travel Dairy Data of Seoul Metropolitan Area(SMA) in Korea. We also computed level of TC and total commuting elimination impacts by applying Mokhtarian(1998)'s synthetic approach. From our econometric approaches, we found that the total amount of commuting reduction due to TC is expected to be about 0.3% of total VKT on any given week day in SMA. However, 70% of commuting reduction effect is eliminated by various travel generating effects derived from TC. As a result, net benefit of telecommuting is only about 0.1% of total VKT on any given week day(about 1km per each household). Therefore, planners have to consider negative impact of TC when they determine optimal level of TC and penetration to meet air quality standards and other policy goals.