부동산중개 공제사고의 경기민감도 분석

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of various economic contemporary and lagged variables on the frequency of accident of the real estate brokerage in Korea utilizing the time-series model. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study is focused on empirical analysis using the time series model. The data for this analysis is collected from the Korea Association of Realtors which is the fraternal insurer of real estate brokerage in Korea. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS We find that the accident frequency of the real estate brokerage in Korea is able to explained by macro economic variables such as economic growth, interest rate, and so on. 2. RESULTS Results obtained in this study can be summarized as follows; 1) Economic depression results in the frequent accidents in fraternal insurance market. However, there is no sign of contemporary effect of economic growth but a quarter lagged effect. 2) There is a positive correlation between the frequency of accidents in fraternal insurance brokerage and one quarter lagged interest rates, but a negative correlation. But the positive correlation between the accidents and interest rates becomes negative about two quarters later. However, the absolute value of the interest effects dwindles over time. 3) The positive contemporary relationship between the price of real estate and the number of accidents is found. 4) Finally, the empirical analysis shows that the number of accidents has been increasing over time even after controlling economic variables.