동태 실증수리계획법(PMP)을 이용한 기후변화의 경제적 효과 분석 : 쌀 생산성 변화를 중심으로

Our study analyzes the economic impacts of climate change on Korean agricultural sector and the effects of adaptation measures. The study covers 43 agricultural products incorporated into a positive mathematical programming (PMP) agricultural sector model. The study extends the usual static PMP model into a dynamic recursive one to quantify the long-run impacts of climate change. The crop simulation information on the impacts of climate change on Korean rice productivity is incorporated into the model to quantify the economic loss. However, not only the direct impacts on rice industry but also the spillovers to other agricultural products are derived. It is shown that total profit of agricultural sector declines continuously as a result of climate change. It is projected that the loss from climate change will amount to 6.42 percent of total agricultural profit in 2100 under the IPCC SRES scenario AIB. It is also shown that climate change may increase total agricultural output if an appropriate adjustment measure is adopted.