부동산 관련 세제 변화가 주택임대차시장에 미치는 영향: 양도세 중과 및 종부세 도입 효과를 중심으로

In this paper, empirical analysis on the effects of tax reform related to real estate on housing rents was conducted with the system GMM model by using our country’s time series data for the period from 1976 to 2007, and dynamically predicted the impact that the tax reform in 2003 and 2005 will have on the construction volume of newly built rental housing and housing rents for the period from 2004 to 2014. The main results are as follows. The demand for rental housing increased from 0.22% to 1.05% if the user cost of capital for owner occupied household increased 1 %p. The housing rent elasticity of demand for rental housing was estimated to be –0.48~-.58. When the rental cost of capital increased by 1%p, the construction volume of newly built rental housing by type of rental housing suppliers was found to decrease by 3.34-6.64% in the short-run, and 4.45-9.34% in the long-run. The housing rent elasticity of the supply of the construction volume of newly built rental housing in the supplier of rental housing by type model were estimated to be 1.51, 1.52, 0.87 in the short-run and 2.72, 2.12, 1.16 in the long run. The increase in rental cost of capital due to the tax reform in 2003 and 2005 is estimated to reduce the construction volume of newly built rental housing for the period from 2004 to 2014 by 8.5-10.0% and to increase the average housing rents for the same period by 1.57-1.90%. Particularly, the increase in housing rents in 2010 and 2011 accelerated due to the tax reform. After all, the Roh Moo-hyun government’s tax policy to stabilize housing for the low-income bracket means that it will bring about the unexpected results of the increase in hosing rents.