발생액의 질과 변동성이 경영자이익예측정확성에 미치는 영향

We investigate the association of accrual quality and accrual component of earnings volatility on management earnings forecast accuracy. In an uncertain operating environment, manager's assessments of their firm's business prospects are imperfect. Since managers' imperfect business assessments influence both accrual generation and earnings forecast, we expect that management earnings forecasts are associated with information of accrual. We employ accrual quality(AQ) and accrual component of earnings volatility(ACEV) as a proxy of accrual information. Accrual quality is estimated by Dechow and Dichev(2002)'s method, and accrual component of earnings volatility is estimated by Jayaraman(2008)'s method. ACEV is the difference of earnings volatility and accrual volatility. We hypothesize that they should be negative(positive) association between AQ(ACEV) and management earnings forecast accuracy. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find significant negative(positive) associations between AQ(ACEV) and management earnings forecast accuracy. The bigger AQ(ACEV), the bigger the difference of management earnings forecasts and reported earnings. These results are the same in operating income and net income level. This study provides the evidence that earnings quality has significant effects on management earnings forecasts.