증권회사의 산업 전문성이 이익예측 정확성에 미치는 영향

The purpose of this study is to examine whether brokerage houses' industry expertise exists and how the expertise affects analyst’s forecast accuracy. In order to fulfill its purpose, this paper investigates the effect of brokerage houses' industry expertise on forecast accuracy. Specifically, three criteria, such as the number of firms in analysts' coverage, the percentage of market share, and the portfolio of sales in industry, are used for the analysis of analysts’ forecast properties in this paper. Prior research(Clement, 1999; Jacob et al. 1999) focused on how individual analysts' characteristics affected on forecast accuracy. For example, individual analysts' ability, complexity of work, and size of brokerage house were taken into account for the determinants on forecasts properties. Especially, size of house brokerage, as a proxy for information resource for analysts, has affected the analyst’s forecast accuracy, which implies and assumes that the level of brokerage house character may affect the forecast accuracy. Despite this effort, no consistent and specific conclusion about the effect of brokerage houses' industry expertise on analyst forecast properties has ever been suggested empirically. This paper extends the area of analysts research by taking the characteristics of brokerage houses' expertise. Our findings are as follows. The higher house’s industry expertise is, the forecast accuracy increases. In detail, the bigger the number of firms that are covered by analysts is, the forecast accuracy increases on the basis of market share. Also, the bigger the sales of firms that are dealt with by analysts are, the forecast accuracy increases on the basis of portfolio. Overall, the results of this paper are consistent with the notion that forecast properties are affected by brokerage house’s characteristics, specifically industry expertise. Recently, the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act, officially known as Consolidated Capital Market Act went into effect on February 4. 2009. The purpose of this act is to stimulate the competition of analysts in capital market. In this regard, the results of this paper suggest the insight of analyst forecast properties. This paper is very significant in that it has shown that house brokerage expertise determines the accuracy of analyst forecasts empirically. First of all, this paper provides the usefulness of information about analysts’ house brokerage for the potential investors. Analyst forecasts are used as a proxy for market expectation, which implies that information user for analysts forecast should take industry expertise of brokerage house into account. Secondly, this paper extends the research area linked to analysts by suggesting the level of brokerage house characteristics incrementally, which affects analysts forecasts properties, compared to previous study that focus on individual analyst characteristics.