시나리오 기법을 통해 본 북한의 시장경제체제 법제로의 이행

Employing the scenario method, this study examines changes in North Korea's legal system resulting from North Korea's shift to market economy in next ten years. Two variables are introduced in making up the scenario. Concerned with Northeast Asia, one is cooperation and conflicts between the USA and China in the annual Strategic Economic Dialogue between the USA and China. Related to North Korea, the other is the promotion and reduction of the individual's economic right. Scenario I (North Korea's legal system for market economy to join WTO: combination of cooperation in the Strategic Economic Dialogue between the USA and China and promotion of the individual's economic right in North Korea): North Korea begins to shift its economic legal system by adopting policy to promote the individual's right in the mood of cooperation between the USA and China. That is, North Korea builds the foundation of legal system in which the economic subject can enter and exit the market freely. After building legal system for market economy and establishing independence of the judicature, North Korea begins to arrange legal system in order to join WTO in 2020. Scenario II (Finding an answer from China's legal system: combination of conflicts in the Strategic Economic Dialogue between the USA and China and promotion of the individual's economic right in North Korea): North Korea decides to enter into market economy in order to get out of its economic difficulties through reconciliation and cooperation between the USA and North Korea caused by conflicts between the USA and China. North Korea concentrates itself on building legal system for socialist market economy, paying attention to China's transition to market economy and consequent legal system but maintaining socialist legal system in the political domain. Scenario III (the individual for the collective: combination of conflicts in the Strategic Economic Dialogue between the USA and China and reduction of the individual's economic right in North Korea): North Korea comes to have a sense of crisis, that is, not to be able to preserve its regime by aggravation of economic difficulties resulted from a break in China's support for and cooperation with it. As a measure for breakthrough North Korea arranges legal system for market economy applied to some of the special economic zones but fails to bear fruits. As the building of legal system for transition into market economy is delayed, the profit of the whole people gets much more emphasis than the right of the individual. Scenario IV (Cohabitation of different domestic and foreign economic law: combination of cooperation in the Strategic Economic Dialogue between the USA and China and reduction of the individual's economic right in North Korea): The USA agrees to carry out both the third stage of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsular and the conclusion of peace agreement between North Korea and the USA, as cooperative relationship holds fast in the Strategic Economic Dialogue between the USA and China. North Korea, however, sticks to its socialist system, keeping the USA's treachery in mind. Nevertheless, North Korea gradually accepts economic legal system for foreign countries, in which the principles of market economy operate, in order to find a way out of pressing economic difficulties. As a result, there come to coexist economic legal system based on the principles of market economy and applying to foreign investment businesses and another system based on planned economy system and applying to domestic national enterprises. To conclude from the above four scenarios, the aim of policy the South Korean government should pursue might be the building of legal system which establishes market economy system, while accepting North Korea's despotic socialist political system. For policies of South Korea, which interfere in the shift of North Korea's political system, cannot help realize any cooperation between the two Koreas.