부동산 버블 측정에 관한 연구 -아파트를 중심으로-

This study defined ‘bubble’ as the present value difference between the market price of ‘asset being evaluated’ and the profit generated from the asset being evaluated. The ‘lease index’ and profit flow of apartment had been converted to ‘apartment buy/sell price index’ and the ‘bubble rates’ of apartments by region and by time had been measured using the present value calculation model. As of March 2012, the apartment buy/sell price indices of Seoul/Incheon areas had been relatively lower than other metropolitan cities out of capital area; however, the bubble rates of Seoul/Incheon had been two to four times higher than the bubble rates of other metropolitan cities out of capital area. This clearly and quantitatively tells the ‘bubble state’, which cannot be identified by apartment buy/sell price index. It is believed that government measures on the real estate market had been implemented without knowing the magnitude of bubbles definitely. It also means that the performance and effect of government real estate policies cannot be measured in detail. This study suggests that government policies on real estate market can be quantitatively evaluated by measuring the absolute magnitude and relative magnitude of bubbles. It is expected that the quantitative measuring method of ‘bubble’ in this study would contribute in future studies on ‘bubble’ as well as in the establishment of government policies on real estate market.