철도여객운송의 행태분석: 수도권전철과의 비교

This paper aims at investigating the difference of the behavioral characteristics between the demand for the intercity railroad and that for the Seoul Metropolitan Electrified Railways Sector. The railroad passengers have been increasing 3 percent a year but the increase is mostly based on the higher demand for the Seoul Metropolitan Electrified Railways Sector. The intercity passengers have been decreased for the same period. This paper, hence, divides the railroad demand into two groups: one is for the intercity demand, the other the SMESRS. All series span the period 1981 to 2010. This study first finds that all the series and the residuals of four models are stationary at the 5 percent significance level. The regression analysis indicates that the income variable affects greatly the SMESRS and the passenger-km of intercity railroad, while the price variable affects the demand for intercity railroad in great depth. The static rolling regression shows that the influences of the income and the price are decreasing in the intercity railroad, while they are increasing in the passenger-km. This paper also predicts the demand for the railroad passengers during the period of 2012 to 2020 assuming 3 percent growth of GDP and 3 percent price increase in 2012, 2015 and 2020. The forecasts indicate that the demand will decrease by 14.3 percent compared with that of 2010. The error-correction models show that the adjustment speed of the Seoul Metropolitan Electrified Railways Sector is much slower than that of intercity railroad, meaning that it is difficult to meet the excess demand of the former.