한국의 법집행 및 노동시장특성이 범죄발생에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증분석

The number of conventional crimes in Korea increased very sharply in the 2000s, and is rising even faster recently. We estimate the crime supply function of Korea by using a panel data method, and pursue a couple of first-run specific missions. First, we test the deterrence hypothesis regarding the conviction probability as well as the arrest probability for Korea. Second, we explore the labor-crime nexus that has been emphasized in the literature. Estimation results firmly verify the deterrence power of both probabilities. Yet, conviction mostly turns out to have a higher level of deterrence, which is believed to shed a meaningful implication to criminal policy. As to the labor market characteristics, their disaggregation by the criminal propensity appears to be the most important facet in estimating the crime function. For representative examples, youth unemployment is particularly relevant to crimes and the income or wages make differentiating effects across industries. We submit that these results most probably are capturing the aspect of low-skilled and/or low-educated labors. It thus follows that labor policy selectively designed for enlarging human capital is more closely related to criminal policy than has been treated conventionally. Other policies specifically targeted for crime-prone labors appear to be in serious need in Korea now.