확률계획법을 활용한 원자력 대체비용의 분석

A nuclear energy has been one of the most important sources to securely supply electricity in South Korea. Its weight in the national electricity supply has kept increasing since the first nuclear reactor was built in 1978. The country relies on the nuclear approximately 31.4% in 2012 and it is expected to increase to 48.5% in 2024 based on the long-term electricity supply plan announced by the Korean government. However, Fukushima disaster due to 9.0 magnitude earthquake followed by the tsunami has raised deep concerns on the security of the nuclear power plants. The policy makers of the country are much interested in analyzing the cost structure of the power supply in the case that the nuclear is diminished from the current supply portion. This research uses a stochastic model that aims to evaluate the long-term power supply plan and provides an extensive cost analysis on the changes of the nuclear power supply. To evaluate a power supply plan, the research develops a few plausible energy mix scenarios by changing the installed capacities of energy sources from the long-term electricity supply plan. The analyses show that the nuclear is still the most attractive energy source since its fuel cost is very much stable compared to the other sources. Also the results demonstrate that a large amount of financial expenditure is additionally required every year if Koreans agree on the reduction of nuclear to increase national security against a nuclear disaster.