무역금융과 수출: 동태적 인과성과 정책 우선순위

This paper analyses the dynamic causal relationship between trade finance and export using the dynamic vector error-correction model. In addition, this paper attempt to apply the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) to determine the priority for the support policy of public trade finance. Cointegrated series have an error correction representation. Engle and Granger (1987) reveal that, if the series are cointegrated, then the possibility of the estimated regression being spurious due to tribulations such as omitted variable bias, autocorrelation, and endogeneity is ruled out. Since variables are cointegrated, the direction of causality among the variables can determined. For this purpose various vector error correction models can be specified. Observing the short-run properties of the series, by utilizing such models, may provide very useful insights especially for policy makers. Also, AHP uses the judgments of decision makers to form a decomposition of problems into hierarchies. Problem complexity is represented by the number of levels in the hierarchy which combine with the decision-maker’s model of the problem to be solved. The hierarchy is used to derive ratio-scaled measures for decision alternatives and the relative value that alternatives have against organizational goals and project risks. AHP uses matrix algebra to sort out factors to arrive at a mathematically optimal solution. The dynamic causality results reveal there exists bidirectional causality between bank trade finance and export. Furthermore, AHP results show the necessity of exchange risk management consulting and factoring support expand for small businesses.