경영자 이익예측 정보의 구성항목 공시에 따른 시장반응
The Market Reaction of Disaggregated Earnings Forecasts
김선미(고려대학교)
51호, 23~46쪽
초록
본 연구는 경영자 이익예측 구성항목 공시기업의 누적초과수익률을 분석하여 경영자 이익예측 정보가 일반투자자들의 의사결정에 미치는 영향을 실증분석 한다. 만일 일반투자자들이 경영자 이익예측 구성항목 공시정보를 신뢰성 있다고 판단한다면, 누적초과수익률에 긍정적 영향을 미칠 것이다. 본 연구가설의 분석을 위해 공정공시 제도가 시행된 2002년부터 2010년도 자료를 바탕으로 유가증권상장기업의 경영자 이익예측 구성항목 공시가 누적초과수익률에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 비기대이익이 큰 기업이 이익예측의 구성항목을 공시하는 경우 통계적으로 유의한 양(+)의 관련성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 반복공시/재공시 기업을 분석대상에서 제외한 추가분석결과에서도 일관된 결과를 발견할 수 있었다. 또한, 구성항목 수(NDISITEM)를 독립변수로 설정한 분석에서도 일관된 결과를 발견할 수 있었다. 본 연구의 결과는 경영자 이익예측 구성항목 공시를 통해 자본시장에서 일반투자자들에게 유용한 정보를 제공할 수 있음을 보였다는 점에서 추가적인 공헌점이 있다.
Abstract
This paper examines the consequences of disaggregated earnings forecasts after adopting regulation fair disclosure from 2002 to 2010 by testing the market reaction on the disaggregated earnings forecasts. First of all, in both Hirst et al.(2007) and Hutton et al.(2003), those paper mention that the supplement information enhances the credibility of earnings forecasts because disaggregated earnings forecasts play an important role in detecting and suppressing earnings management activities ex ante. This leads investors to believe that the managers are constraining their ability to meet the management forecast through earnings management behavior. Also, this leads managers to pre-commit the higher financial reporting quality. In addition, prior papers argue that managers tend to disclose the disaggregated earnings forecasts as the signal of forecasting ability when managers have confidence about disaggregated earnings forecasts. If disaggregation indeed signals higher forecasting ability, I would expect disaggregated earnings forecasts might be positively related to cumulative abnormal returns. In order to examine the effect of disaggregated earnings forecast, I hand collect the management forecasts data and code '1' value if firms disclose disaggregated earnings forecast during the sample period between 2002 and 2010. If firms issue an item from earnings forecasts, it is treated as the aggregated earnings forecasts while others remain as disaggregated earnings forecasts. I find that disaggregated earnings forecasts actually help investors’ investment decision. Also, I find the consistent results after eliminating firms with repeated disclosure. Furthermore, this finding is consistent by testing the market reaction to the number of disaggregated earnings forecasts. This paper contributes to the voluntary disclosure literature by showing the consequences of the disclosure to investors by using cumulated abnormal return as dependent variables. And this study complements the experimental work of Hirst et al.(2007) who reports that disclosure of the forecasts increases the perceived financial reporting quality. This paper expands the literature by incorporating the disaggregated earnings forecast as the determinant of disclosure form ex ante.
- 발행기관:
- 한국국제회계학회
- 분류:
- 기타사회과학일반