당기 이익에 영향을 미치는 이익구성요소의 특성
Attributes of Time-Specific Earnings Components Affecting Current-Period Earnings Only
백원선(성균관대학교)
42권 6호, 1691~1713쪽
초록
본 연구에서는 전통적 방식에 따른 이익구성요소와 Francis and Smith(2005)의 방식에 따른 “당기 이익 관련”(timespecific)이익구성요소간의 특성 차이를 비교하였다. 전통적 방식의 이익구성요소에는 당기 이익에 영향을 미치는 구성요소 뿐 아니라 전기 또는 차기 이익에 영향을 미치는 구성요소가 포함되는데 Francis and Smith(2005)은 이 중에서전기 또는 차기 이익에 영향을 미치는 구성요소를 제거할 경우 영업현금흐름과 발생액의 지속성 차이가 대폭 줄어든다는증거를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 이익특성을 나타내는 측정치 중에서 특히 이익과의 연관성, 1차자기상관관계, 변동성및 지속성 등을 중심으로 두 가지 방식의 이익구성요소를 비교하였다. 주요 실증분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 이익구간별 이익구성요소의 횡단면 분포에 의하면 전통적 방식의 이익구성요소중에서 발생액과 이익간 연관성이 영업현금흐름과 이익간 연관성보다 더 높았으나 Francis and Smith(2005) 방식의이익구성요소에서는 발생액보다 영업현금흐름이 이익과 더 높은 연관성을 나타냈다. 둘째, 전통적 이익구성요소에 비하여Francis and Smith(2005) 방식의 이익구성요소가 더 높은 1차자기상관관계를 보였다. 셋째, 변동성은 전통적 이익구성요소보다 Francis and Smith(2005) 방식의 이익구성요소가 더 작았다. 넷째, 영업현금흐름의 지속성은 전통적 방식보다 Francis and Smith(2005) 방식이 더 작은 반면에 발생액의 지속성은 전통적 방식보다 Francis and Smith(2005)방식이 더 컸다. 그 결과 Francis and Smith와 유사하게 영업현금흐름과 발생액의 지속성간의 차이가 크게 줄어들었다. 이상의 결과는 Francis and Smith(2005) 방식의 당기이익 관련 이익구성요소가 전통적 이익구성요소에 비하여 안정적인 특성을 갖고 있다는 것을 보여주었다. 즉, 이는 전통적 이익구성요소에 포함되어 있는 전기 또는 차기 이익과 관련된항목들로 인하여 전통적 이익구성요소의 안정성과 지속성이 상대적으로 떨어지기 때문에 나타나는 현상이라는 것을 제시하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구의 결과는 정보이용자가 이러한 이익구성요소의 특성을 감안하여 이익의 시계열 특성, 이익품질 등을 포함한 기업분석에 활용할 필요가 있다는 점을 시사해 준다.
Abstract
This study compares attributes between traditional and time-specific earnings components. Sloan (1996) shows that operating cash flows are more persistent than accruals. However, Francis and Smith (2005) document that Sloan's (1996) result for the persistence difference between traditionally defined operating cash flows and accruals is weakened when both components are measured in a “time-specific” manner. Francis and Smith's (2005) time-specific earnings components exclude such items that are not included in current-period earnings but included in either previous-period or next-period earnings. This study examines the differential attributes of time-specific earnings components compared to traditional earnings components. Specifically, the attributes such as the association with earnings, first-order autocorrelation, volatility, and persistence are compared between two sets of earnings components. Adopting Francis and Smith's (2005) assumptions on time-series properties, variance and covariance of earnings components, I expect (1) that the first- order autocorrelation of traditional operating cash flows is larger than that of traditional accruals only if the first-order autocorrelation exceeds 0.333 while the first-order autocorrelations of time-specific earnings components are indistinguishable, (2) that traditional operating cash flows are more volatile than traditional accruals only if the first-order autocorrelation exceeds 0.250 while time-specific accruals are more volatile that time-specific operating cash flows,and (3) that traditional operating cash flows are more persistent than traditional accruals unless the absolute value of the first-order autocorrelation exceeds 0.707 while time-specific earnings components are identically persistent. The final sample consists of 9,200 non-financial firm-years with December fiscal year that are traded over Korea Exchange for 1995-2011. Empirical findings are summarized as follows. First, when the cross-sectional distribution of two sets of earnings components, traditional accruals are more highly associated with earnings than operating cash flows but tims-specific accruals are less highly associated with earnings than operating cash flows. Second, the firstorder autocorrelations of time-specific earnings components are larger than those of traditional earnings components. Third, traditional earnings components are more volatile than timespecific earnings components. Fourth, time-specific operating cash flows are less persistent than traditional operating cash flows while time-specific accruals are more persistent than traditional accruals. And as a consequence, the difference of persistence between operating cash flows and accruals becomes smaller for time-specific earnings components than for traditional earnings components as evidenced by Francis and Smith (2005). The results in this study deepen our understanding of the accrual basis of accounting by documenting a distinguishable nature of accounts with the current-period earnings effect from those without the current-period earnings effect. The results in this study suggest that timespecific earnings components are less volatile than traditional earnings components and that the persistence difference between operating cash flows and accruals becomes smaller for timespecific earnings components than for traditional earnings components. Higher volatility and larger difference of persistence of traditional earnings components are of course caused by accrual-entry and deferral-entry accounts that do not affect current-period earnings but affect previous-period or next-period earnings. In other words, although the accounts without currentperiod earnings effect do not affect current-period earnings, such accounts are more likely to deteriorate the quality of operating cash flows or accruals. Information users should pay more attention to a distinctive nature between traditional and time-specific earnings components for their economic decisions.
- 발행기관:
- 한국경영학회
- 분류:
- 경영학