소득불평등과 범죄발생에 관한 실증분석: 지니 및 퍼센타일 지수를 중심으로

According to OECD, Korea’s income inequality has steadily worsened in the2000s. The deterioration of income equality affects various economic and socialconditions. In this paper, we focus on its effect from the perspective of criminaljustice policy. We calculate Korean income inequality across 12 regions over the2000s by using KLIPS, and investigate its effects on the crime supply. Weinclude the deterrence and major control variables that are know to be the mostimportant facet in estimating the crime function. After obtaining reliableempirical specifications, we analyze the effect of various indices concerningincome inequality such as the Gini coefficient. Estimation results firmly verify theexpected effects of deterrence and income inequality variables. As to thedeterrence hypothesis, the conviction probability's effect is about 1.5 times thearrest probability. With respect to the statistically significant effect of incomeinequality, for example, reductions in the Gini coefficient by 0.0156 and 0.0172turn out to make the same deterrent effects as when the probabilities of arrestand prosecution, respectively, are raised by 1 percent point (i.e., 5,800 and 6,300crimes in absolute terms). It is also a very intriguing finding that the effect of income inequality is not uniform across income baskets. Income disparitybetween the lowest and median cohorts, in particular, produce a most tangiblecrime effect, which provides an important implication for criminal policy. Thisfinding is consistent with major extant studies undertaken overseas. It thusfollows, for instance, that job-creating efforts for improving the income of thosebelow the median income level (e.g., the next-needy and relatively-poor classes)can effectively deter crime as well as simply raise their welfare.